BoltWatch

Dedicated to those who can tell the difference between A. Bolt and a nut.

Where Andrew Bolt's Deranged Polemic ... Gets What's Coming To It

Friday, February 25, 2005

Bolt 25/2/5: "The power of panic"
Summary: In which Andrew Bolt blames "the green movement" for people panicking in the Virgin Blue terminal at Melbourne Airport when there were fears of a chemical leak on Monday. Yes, by raising concerns about global warming and other environmental issues, the "greens" are responsible for people being increasingly paranoid...

Today's article is so ridiculous it reminds us why it's so astonishing that Bolt is actually paid to write this sort of drivel.

It seems the constant scare-mongering of green and other groups may have made us vulnerable to attacks of mass hysteria.

IT seems Melbourne Airport may not have been crippled on Monday by a "chemical leak" but an attack of mass hysteria.

And thank our green paranoia for it.


If we break his article into dot points:

  • There appears to be no chemical or other evidence for Monday's evacuation at Melbourne Airport
  • Therefore, people may have been victims of "an attack of mass hysteria"
  • People are worried about things because of the green movement:
    "With the birth of the environmental movement, concerns over the depletion of the ozone layer, acid rain, chemical and biological weapons, and fear of contaminants in our food, air and water, we have grown more suspicious and sensitive to strange smells."

  • Therefore it's the green movement's fault
  • Therefore the green movement owes Virgin $2 million compensation.


To which I think we can all safely say, WHAT THE...? (You know, that was an appropriate remark until bloody Rove McManus ruined it for the rest of us.)

First of all, being conscious of warning signs is just a sensible survival tactic. Panic isn't, so much, but being aware of your environment is probably not a bad thing. Presumably Bolt's forebears were, or he wouldn't be here.

And, if this was paranoia, is there any reason to link this with the green movement? Bolt doesn't really give any, except that the environmental movement has given people some particular things to be concerned of. Although, those things are more long-term - the Green movement hasn't ever, to my knowledge, suggested that the depletion of the ozone layer might attack people at an airport.

So, what might be causing "paranoia"? Well, how about this little remark Bolt makes and then passes over:

The sick came mainly from a unit of people close enough to react to each other – security staff and Virgin Blue employees, rather than random passengers. Their workplace was stressful – staff knew the risk of terror attacks, and now Patrick Corporation is bidding for their airline.


So, a reasonable conclusion to draw from this would be that, if this was paranoia, it was linked to fear of terrorist attacks (and which governments have been escalating THAT paranoia, eh? Not conservative ones, surely?) and possibly uncertainty over being victims of corporate takeovers.

I can't see anything in this article which in any way supports Bolt's sudden attempt to blame the green movement for Monday. Does anyone even proof-read his columns before they're published any more?

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Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Bolt 23/2/5 "War of the words"
Summary: In Which Bolt tries to do a hatchet-job on Rod Barton, formerly of the Iraq Survey Group, because of his claims that "he had interrogated one of 100 or so high-value prisoners at Camp Cropper". Bolt argues that Barton's definition of "interrogate" really just means "interview", and - because in Australia words mean what the Army says they mean - that's wrong, because in Army-speak those are two completely different things, and Barton only did the latter.

There's quite a lot wrong with this article, and it will require a somewhat detailed response. I will address it this evening. In the meantime, please read it (if you have the constitution to do so early in the morning) and put your responses in the comments below.

UPDATE As an Age reader points out, there's perhaps a more reasonable distinction between the two words than the one the Libs are relying on - "after an interview you walk out the door. After an interrogation you return to a cell". Quite.

UPDATE: Here's Bolt's article, with responses.

While Iraq triumphantly builds democracy, we are mired in a semantic war over the difference between an interview and an interrogation.

THANK heavens the rest of the world has moved on. Yes, Iraq has held its first free election, Lebanon has big rallies to demand freedom too, and even Saudi Arabia had to stage council elections of a sort.


We on the right are in power, we've done what we set out to do, would you stop trying to hold us accountable? It's in the PAST. Let's only talk about what's coming up in the future. That way, you can never hold the government accountable for anything. It'll be like this... it'll be like this... it'll be like this... oh, wait, it didn't turn out that way, but it doesn't matter, because it's in the past now.

Brilliant. I wonder if Andrew thinks the same logic should be applied in criminal cases. "Your honour, sure what my client did was bad, but it was in the past. Let's all move on."

Of course, the left isn't arguing that we should go back in time and reinstall Saddam Hussein. But that doesn't mean that governments shouldn't be held to account for what they've done, and it doesn't mean that "Saddam Hussein was a bad man" is a catch-all defence for whatever governments do in relation to Iraq. "Yes, sure, we've transferred billions of public dollars to private US companies like Halliburton, sure, there were no WMDs, which was our only justification for going to war, and certainly, there does seem to be a bit of an insurgency going on, with large numbers of American soldiers dying - but Saddam was a bad man, so leave us alone."

Now Time even reports that leaders of Iraq's "insurgents" are negotiating with Washington to end their terror attacks and make peace with freed Iraq.


"Insurgents" in quotes because Bolt wouldn't refer to them as "insurgents" himself; the Iraqi "insurgents" are clearly worse than any previous "insurgents", for some reason, and bring a bad name to "insurgents" everywhere. (I would like to ask Andrew which insurgents in the past haven't behaved like the Iraqi insurgents have, after an invasion. Have there been polite and non-murderous insurgents, who simply write letters to the editor about the invasions? I would think that most insurgents do pretty much what the Iraqi insurgents are doing, which is everything in their power to attack the occupying country. Possibly the word insurgent is appropriate, Andrew, even without the quote marks.)

I'd be curious to read this Time piece. Maybe Andrew should put links to articles he cites on his actual website.

But back in the trenches of Australia, the Iraq war is still fought by fanatics who, like Left-behind Japanese soldiers, don't know they've lost. Up they bobbed again last week, blazing away to ping the Howard Government – surely, this time! – as a bunch of slimeballs who lied us into an unjust war.


Well, the analogy's not a very good one. Politics in a democracy, Andrew, is not winner-takes-all (like a World War). Howard is still in Government, and we are still involved in Iraq (and sending more troops now - odd you ignored this, given that your paper covered it on the same day as your column appeared. I would have thought it somewhat relevant). It remains a current debate. Obviously it's not a debate about "whether we should invade Iraq" any more; it's a debate about what we as a nation are going to do as evidence comes to light of Government lies on the subject.

We've lost a few battles, Andrew, but we haven't yet lost the war.

Rod Barton is a respected microbiologist who served on the Iraq Survey Group, which has searched Iraq for the weapons of mass destruction even Barton once believed were there.

But last week, Barton the bomb searcher became Barton the bomb thrower, with the ABC's Four Corners giving him 45 unchallenged minutes to do his very worst to the Howard Government.


"45 unchallenged minutes"? Of course, Andrew. All media should give equal time and space to opposing views. Except the Herald Sun, of course...

I didn't catch the program, as it happens. Did Four Corners present the government response at all, or try to? And did they "give" him 45 minutes? Did he speak for 45 minutes himself? A piece to camera, perhaps? Somehow, I don't think Bolt's being entirely accurate here.

He went for it. The Government had been "dishonest", he said, when it claimed after the Abu Ghraib prison scandal that no Australians had interrogated Iraqis there, or, it implied, anywhere else.

Not so, declared Barton. "I was involved." He'd interrogated one of 100 or so high-value prisoners at Camp Cropper.

What's more, prisoners held there may have been abused, given he'd seen mugshots of two with apparent abrasions on their faces – abrasions their guards claimed they'd suffered resisting arrest. Now he worried that another prisoner who he'd been told died of a brain tumour had in fact been beaten to death.

Barton also complained the prisoners had poky cells. The scientists and soldiers among them should be let go, because "they haven't done anything wrong".

And he accused the ISG of censoring its reporting of its failed hunt for Iraq's WMD.

"Some of the things we couldn't write about at all," he claimed. For instance, the ISG was "not allowed" to say that aluminium tubes found in Iraq were not part of Saddam's nuclear weapons program, as the CIA had said. Nor was it allowed in its interim report last March to debunk allegations that Saddam had mobile trailers to make biological weapons.

Small points, but almost damning. But let's test Barton's claims – if only for the novelty of the exercise.


"Small" points? "Almost" damning? I'd say they'd be pretty significant and damning points.

First, did Barton "interrogate" (his word) a prisoner at Camp Cropper, or just "interview" (the Government's word) one instead? What's the diff, anyway?

Actually, there is indeed a "clear distinction", our Chief of Army, Lt-General Peter Leahy, told a Senate estimates committee last week. And said Barton should have known it.

Leahy read out from the army's "interrogation handbook" the official definition of an interview and an interrogation. He noted that the difference was that a person being questioned had a right not to answer and could leave. At Camp Cropper, prisoners were "not going to be able to leave detention", but "may be able to leave the interview".


Er, if Barton was only "interviewing" people, and not "interrogating" anyone, why'd he be familiar with the army's "interrogation handbook"? Come to think of it, why's the army have an "interrogation handbook" if it doesn't "interrogate" prisoners? C'mon.

And "may be able to leave the interview"? Riiight.

Brigadier Steve Meekin, who led the first group of Australians in the ISG, told the committee every Australian at Camp Cropper was given an order: "The guidance was if it was an interrogation, they were not to be involved; they were to withdraw and report that to their contingent commander."

Defence Department head Ric Smith summed up: "I believe that what Mr Barton witnessed was not an interrogation – because he did not leave . . .

"He would have left the room, I expect, because they were his orders."


Unless, of course, he was given different orders.

In fact, a senior Defence Department official, Michael Pezzullo, told the committee the Australian contingent commander spoke to Barton soon after his claimed "interrogation" of a prisoner in 2003.

"The contingent commander specifically recalls Mr Barton discussing the relaxed and casual nature of this interview, and that Mr Barton had not raised any concerns at the time regarding the conduct of the interview or over the treatment of the individual in question."

Pezzullo said the prisoner Barton was worrying about seemed to be Dr Rihab Taha, infamous as "Dr Germ", the woman who for 20 years headed much of Saddam's secret research into biological weapons.

(Barton this week suggested he had instead interviewed a man, and denied being ordered not to do interrogations. Strangely, he even claimed credit for calling a meeting of Camp Cropper interrogators to create a "new organisational structure". What authority did this biochemist think he had for this work?)


I don't know, Bolt. Give us the context of the claim. Although it's not unusual for chemists, engineers etc to be responsible for organising their teams. Most engineers and chemists end up in management anyway. Seems like a bit of strange mud-slinging to me.

Meanwhile, as to the gender of the interrogee - well, that's pretty simple. Barton's obviously referring to a bloke, and the person who thinks he's talking about the female "Dr Germ" can't comprehend simple pronouns.

As for the hardships endured by poor Rihab and fellow inmates such as "Chemical Ali", former ISG boss David Kay last week noted they at least had clean cells and air-conditioning, while their guards lived in tents with no cooling. They also "were not shackled" and "interrogations" were more like "a professional conversation".


Spin, spin, spin, spin. And let's just throw "Chemical Ali" in there, because he's more obviously a villain, and if he's there, the other people there must be like him, and therefore anything we do to them is fine.

Seems a bit odd that the prisoner cells would be "air-conditioned" and the guards' quarters wouldn't be. Something tells me it wasn't to be kind to the prisoners.

Perhaps that's why Barton, in reply to a Defence Department questionnaire, last year wrote: "I did not observe any mistreatment of detainees at Camp Cropper," complaining only about their cells and lack of exercise. But that was then.


Hang on a sec, you've quoted one part of his reply. What precisely did he say with those complaints, Andrew?

Are these really the final proofs of the sheer rottenness of this lying government and its evil war?

Believe me, Barton's allegations get no better.

The prisoner he suspects, without hard evidence, may have been beaten to death? It's Mohammed Al Azmirli, one of the weapon researchers who apparently "haven't done anything wrong", but who an ISG report says researched poisons such as ricin right until the war, and tested them on humans.


Ooh, he's shifty with his words. Has Andrew actually claimed here that Mohammed has "researched poisons such as ricin ... and tested them on humans"? Well, not if you read it closely, but it certainly seems that way on a first reading. Because otherwise the claim is completely irrelevant. The correct defence to "a prisoner may have been beaten to death" is "no, he wasn't, and here's the proof". It isn't "some people who worked with him WERE APPARENTLY MONSTERS so it's okay".

What, that's Andrew's best response? Sorry, Andrew, I don't think you've succeeded in explaining away Barton's allegation yet.

And what about his claim that the ISG was banned from mentioning the embarrassing trailers and tubes?

In fact, back in January last year David Kay, who'd just quit as the ISG head, had already said neither the trailers nor tubes seemed part of a WMD program. True, the interim report by his successor, Charles Duelfer, two months later ruled nothing in or out, but Duelfer said he was just six weeks in the job, and wanted to review the ISG's work before giving findings.

But by October, his team had written a final report which not only said all Barton desired about trailers and tubes, but added "Iraq's WMD capability . . . was essentially destroyed on 1991", even if Saddam hoped to reboot it.


Hang on, in October 2004? So they were censored, until after the Australian election and late in the US election cycle?

Some censorship. Is it just possible Barton went off half-cocked, sniffing little evils that were never there?

So here we are, firing at shadows and brawling over semantics, while in the Middle East millions of people build a new democracy on the ruins of tyranny. They build tomorrow, while we still war over yesterday.

And yet Andrew isn't booking a holiday in Iraq yet. Strange.

UPDATE: Thanks to Phil in the comments for this link - handy for those who've only come to this story through Andrew Bolt's skewed coverage.

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Bolt 23/2/5 "Why Daniel deserved silence"
Summary: Tony Abbott should probably have been a bit more private about the discovery of his son, rather than waffling on about it, which was a bit tactless to Daniel's actual adopted parents.

Actually, not too much to complain about here. Bolt even notices a bit of hypocrisy from the Mad Monk:

Abbott did insist Daniel not become a "political football" in his campaign against abortion, but then said: "I am disappointed there are so few babies adopted these days because there are plenty of parents (wanting to adopt)."


I'm not a conspiracy theorist, so I won't ponder whether Bolt sees some trouble on the horizon for Tony, when Daniel returns from overseas and turns out to be a lefty atheist gay abortionist or something.

So - for this second column from Wednesday, not much to critique. Pretty reasonable. (Comments below if you disagree and I've missed something.)

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Monday, February 21, 2005

Anonymous Commenting
I've opened up commenting - Blogger had it set so anonymous commenting wasn't allowed. How are the vast Bolt-loving hordes to respond if they must identify themselves? It hardly seemed fair. (Particularly being an Anonymous sort of Lefty myself.) So, problem fixed.

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You're a Muslim, aren't you? Aren't you?! Ah HA!
From yesterday's Insiders:

ANDREW BOLT: Mr Hopper, Andrew Bolt from the Herald Sun. Before I get to my question can I just ask you, just in passing, I saw a newspaper reference that you'd been - you're a convert to Islam, is that true?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Oh look people are trying to turn a lot of things around on to me privately. My private life is really no-one's business.

ANDREW BOLT: I ask only because you seem to be, you represent quite a number of Islamist extremists, it seems to me. And it also seems to me that you take, you seem to take their case very personally and make quite wild accusations against the government. I’m just wondering what the personal agenda behind this is, are you a convert to Islam or not?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Look, mind your own business Andrew. That's my answer to you.

ANDREW BOLT: OK. Can I ask you the $64 question then, was your client ever in a camp in Afghanistan or Pakistan that was run by Islamist extremists, whether it was Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Toiba or some other similar group?

STEPHEN HOPPER: He's denied that emphatically. He's been asked that question on Sixty Minutes and he says I'm completely innocent, I've never trained with Al Qaeda or any other group, I've never had any or been a member of any terrorist organisation.

ANDREW BOLT: He's never been in one of those camps?

STEPHEN HOPPER: No.


Mud, mud, mud, mud, everybody loves mud.

Andrew, wouldn't that question about the camps have been the actual important and relevant question? Who cares what religion Habib's lawyer is?

Mud, mud, mud.

And he goes on:

ANDREW BOLT: Mr Hopper if he's going around the world chasing lucrative deals, sealing deals and negotiating, what's he doing on a disability pension?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Well, he was on a disability pension because he had severe depression.

ANDREW BOLT: Not to do depressed to go around sealing international deals?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Well, you know people who have depression try and escape from their situation. It’s a very complex condition.

ANDREW BOLT: Should give the money back don’t you think?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Whether this business deal would've worked or whether it was like what it was made out to him, was something we haven't found out.

BARRIE CASSIDY: What was the nature of that business deal, without going into detail?

STEPHEN HOPPER: It involved a cleaning business.

ANDREW BOLT: Cleaning up Afghanistan. Thank God someone's cleaned it up.

MALCOLM FARR: He paid for this trip out of what, the sale of the previous business or saved up his disability pension, how did he pay for this?

STEPHEN HOPPER: I believe there was a small residue left from either selling the house or selling business.

MALCOLM FARR: So he was going to move the whole family at some stage, out of Australia?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Yes he was, well yes. He was looking at doing this for a year or two and then, apparently, if this business was what it was made out to be, he would've set himself up.

ANDREW BOLT: So he's gone to a war zone in Afghanistan to seal a deal to do with cleaning. Do you really think that's remotely credible?

STEPHEN HOPPER: No, no, nice try. We haven't said where Mr Habib was from the time he left Sydney until he was detained. Just because an interviewer makes an assertion of him being in a certain place and he doesn't answer that question. There is actually a number of questions about his locations at various times that he didn't answer but they just played one but because a journalist makes an assertion doesn’t mean it’s true.

ANDREW BOLT: Even if it is northern Pakistan is he really doing a cleaning deal in northern Pakistan, is that what you're asserting?

STEPHEN HOPPER: Oh well, I mean some people say that you masquerade as a journalist.

ANDREW BOLT: I tell you what you're not masquerading very well as a solicitor right now. You haven't got many answers. A cleaning deal in northern Pakistan is that what you're saying?

STEPHEN HOPPER: No it was a deal that was set up to start there and go to another country. Believe it or not, they do have office buildings in Pakistan, they do have office buildings in other countries that need cleaning. It’s not that far fetched.


I love the "you're on a pension, aren't you, so PAY IT BACK" line. Andrew, people's Centrelink details are really none of your business, unless you're alleging that he's committed a fraud on Centrelink, in which case report it to them, let them prosecute it, and report on it once the case is complete.

Otherwise it's just a spin on the "have you stopped beating your wife?" school of character assassination.

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Saturday, February 19, 2005

Bolt Column 18/2/5, "Age Of No Reason"
Summary: In Which Andrew Bolt gets stuck into a graphic on page 3 of the second section of last Saturday's Age (ignoring the main story on global warming all around it), and attempts to undermine its "ten reasons to start worrying now" as if they summarise and represent all the best evidence available in support of climate change.

This is not the best Bolt article with which to start this site, mainly because it is "argument by browbeating with excessive googling". Bolt responds to an unsourced list of claims in The Age with an unsourced list of counter-claims, which frankly makes the task of analysing this column painful. Bolt's normal columns are much more rhetoric-based, and much easier to take apart.

But on with Mr Bolt, anyway:

Want to make a greenie boil? Just question their claims of global warming. It's not hard when so much of the evidence is paper thin.

WHAT a relief it was, to be given the top 10 reasons to panic about global warming.


I'll ignore the assertion that "greenies" are irrational bastards who "boil" over at being "questioned", although it is somewhat of an ad-hominem attack, particularly as a first sentence.

More obviously, "the top" 10 reasons is a a blatant exaggeration, as is the word "panic", as the Age graphic to which Bolt has dedicated this column is simply listing "10 Reasons to Start Worrying Now". ("Worry" rather than "panic", and no attempt to be definitive.)

At last - the list that would save me from doubt!


See how Bolt's backing up his "greenies want you to turn off your brain" line ("Age of No Reason") with the assertion that ten reasons given in an Age graphic are somehow intended to completely resolve the global warming issue and "save [the reader] from doubt". Obviously that's not what was intended. The Age article does not purport to do anything of the sort.

Step 1: Here are ten things the opposition says.
Step 2: They are the TOP TEN THINGS the opposition says.
Step 3: Therefore, if there's any doubt about those ten things, the opposition is wrong about everything, because these are the opposition's TOP TEN arguments.

Bolt is exaggerating what the article says in order to back up his claim that because it doesn't completely resolve the issue of global warming, that therefore global warming is a farce. And also because if you set the article an impossible target, and it fails to reach it, then you can claim that the article's a failure.

It's been tough, resisting this new faith. I'd ask for proof that humans really have been heating the world up to hell with their exhausts, and believers would stare at me as if I were coal.

As a furious green told a weekend paper, sceptics like me are "Holocaust deniers that make themselves look so disgustingly evil".

Even during these latest warnings that the Great Barrier Reef would die in 20 years and polar bears soon after - wild warnings to coincide with the coming into force of the Kyoto protocol - I couldn't find faith.

So I thanked The Age, Australia's most Left-wing daily paper, for launching a crusade to convert sinners like me - pages and pages on global warming, starting on Saturday with a huge graphic: "10 Reasons to Start Worrying Now." And a headline screaming: "WAKE UP. THIS IS SERIOUS."

Here, then, was a carefully researched list of the 10 clearest signs a serious newspaper could find of the harm already caused by global warming. These 10 Truths had to end all doubt.


I'll let the "most left-wing paper" bit go through, although it's intended as an ad-hominem attack (it's probably more of a compliment in real life), and although it's misleading (in terms of Australian politics, the Age is centrist, and backs both the major parties roughly half the time; if it's "Australia's most left-wing daily paper", that's just a sad reflection on the other daily papers).

More important is to put this whole article of Bolt's into context.

On Saturday last week, The Age published four pages on global warming and the Kyoto accord, much of which was simple reporting of what the Kyoto agreement meant and what the arguments were that were being raised. The reporter, Melissa Fyfe, did take the point of view that global warming "is serious", and most of the quotes are in favour of the theory, but there's a lot more detail in the main article, Wake Up - this is serious, which Bolt completely ignores.

Instead, he chooses to attack a graphic on page 3 of the Insight section, of 10 reasons to start worrying (the 10 mainly chosen I suspect because there were pretty pictures to go with them...)

But - forgive me my sin - I checked this list against the facts. Forgive me again, but is this tosh truly all it takes to panic an entire newspaper - and so many of you, dear readers? Is reason now dead?

"To panic an entire newspaper"?

Bolt's made an interesting jump here between "starting worrying now" and "panic".

And although "is reason now dead" may indeed be a question you'd ask yourself whilst reading one of his columns, it's not a particularly relevant or justified question at this point. We'll note that by now, Andrew's spent some 300 words and hasn't started on his response to the actual "10 Reasons".

(Bolt's actually changed the order of the reasons in his response, presumably to put the weakest ones near the start and the strongest ones at the end, by which point presumably the reader has just accepted Bolt's premise and doesn't care any more.)

Let's go through The Age's 10 "reasons to start worrying now", so you can see I do not say all this for the fun of farting in church.

1: Hudson Bay

Claim: "Polar bears have become thinner", as sea ice retreats.

Facts: A Canadian Wildlife Service study did say Hudson Bay's bears were thinner - but as polar bear expert Mitch Taylor recently noted: "We're seeing an increase in bears that's really unprecedented."

The CWS study also said earlier melting of sea ice may make it harder for bears to catch food - but said this melting affected only western Hudson Bay. Indeed, there was "a gradual cooling trend in eastern Hudson Bay . . . and the Labrador Sea".

What's more, Greenland, which also has polar bears, has cooled since 1940. More bears, then. And more cold.


See this response by Philip Gomes. Mr Taylor is quoted out-of-context by Bolt, and there is good evidence that the polar bear populations are decreasing.

2: Tuvalu

Claim: These Pacific islands are "shrinking with rising sea levels".

Facts: Australia's National Tidal Facility monitors Tuvalu's sea levels and found: "The historical record from 1978 through 1999 indicated a sea level rise of 0.07 mm per year", with "no visual evidence of any acceleration".

At this rate, Tuvalu's seas will in 100 years rise by the thickness of a pen. "We have never believed these island will go under water," said University of South Pacific oceanographer Than Aung.


But our seas have risen - 120 metres in the 17,000 years since the last Ice Age, without human gases to fuel it. Satellites detect almost no rise in the past decade.


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

In the meantime, couldn't Bolt find a quote from "Australia's National Tidal Facility", and has anyone else ever heard of the "University of South Pacific" before? And as for "no visual evidence of any acceleration" - what precisely do they mean by this? When they go down to the beach and look at the sea they can't tell whether it's a bit higher than it was yesterday? Well, duh.

3: Antarctica

Claim: Fewer Adelie penguins breed, as seas warm.

Facts: The New Zealand Journal of Ecology in 1990 found "the numbers of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea have increased greatly", and suggested global warming was to blame. Now there are fewer Adelies (in some colonies, but not overall) and that's a sign of warming, too. Yeah, sure, whatever.

Australia's National Tidal FacilityBut several recent studies, including one by NASA, agree Antarctica - with 90 per cent of the world's ice - has grown colder and more ice-bound over the past 20 years or more. Ice-breakers this month had to cut through 80 nautical miles of ice instead of the usual 10 to reach McMurdo station.


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

4: Glacier National Park, Montana, US

Claim: Montana's glaciers are melting away.

Facts: Australia's National Tidal FacilityClimatologist Professor Patrick Michaels says these glaciers have melted since the end of the Little Ice Age 150 years ago - well before we were belching all this carbon dioxide - and Montana's temperatures in the past century of growing industrialisation have not risen significantly.


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

5: China

Claim: Many of China's glaciers are melting.

Facts: China has had to thaw out from the Little Ice Age that killed the famous citrus groves of Jiangxi. The Chinese Science Bulletin in 2003 said scientists found evidence in peat deposits in Hongyuan that China had a warm period around 1000 years ago, before the Little Ice Age, "suggesting ... the main driving force of Hongyuan climate change is from solar activities".

Fancy - warming being caused by the sun. New studies agree solar activity may indeed be behind some of the surface temperature changes we think we've seen - a 0.6 C warming from 1890 to 1940, followed by a cooling of 0.2 C until 1975, and a 0.4 C warming since.


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

Meanwhile, of course warming is caused by the sun! That doesn't contradict global warming. Global warming is about warmth from the sun being trapped in the atmosphere, but it still comes from the sun.

And I love how suddenly credulous Bolt is about the state-run "Chinese Science Bulletin" declaring that its industrial ativities have nothing to do with Hongyuan climate change. Because, there's no motive for them to lie, now, is there? (Also, the Tienanmen Square massacre didn't take place and people love the Communist Party in China.)

6: Afghanistan

Claim: A long drought in Afghanistan, and also in Australia, "may be the product of climate change".

Facts: Afghanistan's drought seems broken by recent heavy rain and snow. Rainfall over Australia rose slightly over the past century, says the Bureau of Meteorology, and our worst known drought came in the 1890s. But do such inevitable changes to local climates prove anything?


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

7: Great Barrier Reef

Claim: Warmer seas are turning the reef white.

Facts: An El Nino caused coral bleaching in 1998, but the reef recovered, as it did again in 2002 - and from worse events in 1782-1785 and 1817. After all, the reef is 60 million years old, and has survived much hotter times.

Dr Andrew Baker, head of America's Coral Research Laboratory, says bleaching may be how a coral adapts - by expelling one of the algaes that help it thrive to make room for a better one.

In fact, reefs "could do well in a warmer world", Australian geochemist Professor Malcolm McCulloch has said, since "warmer ocean temperatures allow expansion of reefs to sub-tropical regions".


Bolt misrepresents The Age here somewhat - the Age extract does refer to the 1998 and 2002 bleaching and attributes them to climate change, not El Nino. Bolt is just contradicting the Age ("it's not climate change, it's El Nino!") but doesn't provide anything in support of his El Nino contention. (Neither does the Age, just citing "scientists", but Bolt's contradiction is hardly convincing, either.

He also just ignores the final sentence relating to this point - "Sea surface temperatures in many AUstralian tropical regions have increased by almost one degree." Bolt doesn't have any contrary evidence, so he just pretends it wasn't said. Which sort of underminds his claim that he's tackling "the top ten reasons to worry" head-on.

As for how reefs would do "in a warmer world", that may be true, but as the Great Barrier Reef took a reasonably long time to form, killing off its northern reaches in the hope that it'll just grow again (at the same rate) at the southern reaches seems a bit risky to me. Bolt may feel comfortable being cavalier about this ("What's the GBR ever done for me? Who cares?") but anyone who thinks that perhaps some of Australia's more unique natural heritage should be protected may still be concerned.

The reef dying on us won't be the end of the world, but it may still be a sign of human-caused climate change.

8: Arctic Ocean

Claim: The ice is melting.

Facts: The Arctic warmed until 1938, but then cooled before warming again - so is still no "hotter" now than it was 60 years ago.

Greenland, however, is still colder and icier than it was then, says the Danish Meteorological Institute, and was once so warm that Vikings thought it a truly green land.


*CHECKING MR BOLT'S GOOGLING ON THIS ISSUE. TO BE UPDATED.

9: Snowy Mountains and Victorian Alps

Claim: Snow gums have moved up the ranges as they've warmed. Migratory birds are affected too.

Facts: One study claims snow gums are now found 30m higher up mountains. Horror - more trees! But does this prove a global warming? No one knows.

Another study found four species of migratory birds now arrive a little earlier in spring - but one a little later. Yes, and...?


What study? Bolt doesn't say. Of course this stuff doesn't "prove global warming". Bolt, it's a sign of global warming. The migratory birds changing their patterns is just evidence of climate change. It's not proof, but it's evidence of a sort.

10: The Netherlands

Claim: Flycatcher birds migrate from Africa to find Europe so warm that the caterpillars they eat have emerged sooner than usual.

Facts: Very sad, but is global warming or local warming to blame? And are a few warmer years in one area a trend, or a natural cycle of an Earth that knew warmer times often before?


Bolt is leaving out somewhat crucial bits of The Age article here - the point was that the changing climate and the mismatch in times was causing the species to starve. This makes the 10th reason seem somewhat more pointless than it actually was.

And - "local warming"? Where the hell is Andrew pulling that one from? Why would that area specifically suddenly be getting hotter?

Is Bolt just deliberately muddying the waters here?

And that is it. That's The Age's list of the most frightening signs of global warming. See how little there is in it to justify this panic.

The truth is that despite the hype, not much about global warming is known for sure, not even how much the Earth has heated, and whether our carbon dioxide (CO2) caused it. So say even lead authors of the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose doctored "predictions" are most used to frighten us.

One of them, Professor John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, asks: "Will increases in CO2 affect the climate significantly? Are significant changes occurring now? Climate models suggest the answer is yes. Real data suggests otherwise."

Adds another, Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: "The temperature is always changing for the earth, so it has only two choices - going up or going down. It has done both, and that doesn't say it's due to CO2; it doesn't say it's going to continue; it doesn't say anything beyond that."

This is why Lindzen calls the Kyoto accord, which demands expensive cuts to our emissions, "absurd".

But so much is absurd in the global warming hysteria, not least the media's willing surrender of its reason.


This article, of course, took Bolt a week of googling to write. It'll take a bit more googling time from me to google some detailed responses to Bolt's googling. Google google google.

But in any case, even if Bolt's selective quotes (and it's pretty clear that on the issue of climate change, with two clear camps, you're going to be able to find at least two "scientist"s with reasonable credentials who'll say exactly the opposite thing on any particular point) are sufficient to raise doubt on the content of The Age's list, it's also pretty clear that he hasn't picked the other side's strongest case and sought to tackle it head-on. He's picked a nice easy target and got stuck into that instead. Which is all very well, but ultimately all you can take from this little rant is that the Age's ten warning signs aren't a lay-down misere. But so what? Who said they were?

I'll update this post as I chase up whether there's anything definitive in support of or refuting Bolt's ten responses. (I get the feeling he was so sick of googling by the tenth that he simply ran that last point off with very little googling, because he didn't care any more. I sort of sympathise.)

This response is complicated by the fact that the author of the Age list didn't actually cite any of her sources either.

UPDATE: Any people who've been following the climate change debate closely, your contributions will be much appreciated at this point. The problem is, there is material online which Bolt is quoting in most of his responses above. However, it is very difficult to find the actual original sources of the claims, because all that appears to exist online is claims repeated around the online right-wing echo chamber, none of which cite an original source.

UPDATE #2: There's now appears to be some clear data supporting climate change over the past 40 years, taken from ocean readings. I expect if this is accurate we'll hear more about it shortly. (Thanks to Ms P for the link.)

UPDATE #3: Readers are referred to RealClimate for some further details about climate change research.

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Friday, February 18, 2005

Shall we?
Before I get a chance to get stuck in to Bolt's last column (it'll have to wait til tomorrow if I'm going to do it properly), I'll just make a request.

Can people feel free to put, in the comments of each Bolt-column related post, links to their own blog responses to that particular column, as well as any clear rebuttal you've thought of that I haven't.

I'd like this to be a sort of central hub to which people can refer for relief as they reel in horror away from an accidental reading of an Andrew Bolt column...

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Friday Bolt - 10 Things I Hate About Global Warming
Bolt's column today is a "researched" response to ten reasons to be concerned about climate change, apparently given by The Age last Saturday.

Unfortunately, unlike Andrew Bolt, my job doesn't involve hours of googling. Therefore, a detailed response to his claims and counterclaims will have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime, readers who are particularly knowledgeable about climate change are invited to raise any particular inaccuracies they notice in Bolt's column, with sources, in the comments below.

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Thursday, February 17, 2005

Welcome to BoltWatch


Meet Andrew Bolt.

Andrew Bolt, aka Old Rice And Monkey Nuts, is a disturbingly demented right-wing columnist based in Melbourne, Australia.

He likes to blame the ills of the world on greenies (who he thinks are "the new Nazis"), lefties, single mothers, cyclists, lefties, and academics. His columns are case-studies in dishonest and disingenuous polemic.

And he's a pesky and persistent bugger. Try as you might to ignore him, he just keeps plugging away. And responses to his ridiculous columns keep filling up my normal blog.

So, welcome to BoltWatch. We'll be tearing strips out of his more ludicrous claims, and calmly and concisely subjecting his columns to some proper analysis. You know, like they don't get from his one-eyed readers.

I'll be setting up a colour-coding system to match particular repeated logical fallacies on which his rants rely. For example, text in grey will be unsubstantiated crap that he hasn't at all backed up. Text in red will be irrelevant but prejudicial ad-hominem attacks. You get the idea.

In the meantime, here are links to my commentary on his last four columns:


(The new commentary, however, will be a bit different to the above. Tune in after his next column appears online.)

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Portions of any work of Andrew Bolt are taken from his webpage at http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/, are copyright Andrew Bolt, and are reproduced on the basis of the "fair dealing for purpose of criticism or review" section 41 of the Copyright Act 1968. Other material is copyright by its various authors, which sort of goes without saying really.